N. 'Man O'Rage' R.

Bottled Rage...

Fri, 11 Apr 2008 08:38:00 GMT

I haven’t been blogging much lately, for various reasons. I have been busy with my flights and consultancy work. It’s also the 'check ride' time of the year where I need to spend hours on the simulator proving that I am still a competent pilot.

All this means that I have to keep all the rage bottled up and focus on the tasks at hand. But the world is hell bent on giving that bottle a good shake. Just a few happenings around the world that I would love to rave and rant about...

The Olympic Games - I am no fan of the Olympic Games. I don’t see what value they provide the public at large. They only benefit the tycoons who have made a business case around them and little prancing dip wads who have never done an hour of serious work in their life as they are dedicated to running around in circles and doing physical activities that are of no productive value. I have never seen the need for a law abiding citizen to pole vault or run fast - while jumping over hurdles - and take-a-dump-at-the-same-time. Let’s face it; the Olympics are antiquated games that were invented by the Greek aristocrats to entertain themselves while someone invented the television. Let’s get rid of them. They are a waste of time and other precious resources.
The Olympic Torch - What on earth is this all about? So some people run around the world with a torch? Why? This is of as much value as 'human chains' and other stupid gestures that hippies think of. Has the green brigade considered the carbon impact of this harebrained idea? As if it wasn’t stupid enough in the first place, it is now being used for political propaganda!! The only good thing that came out of this stupid fiasco was that it took the Met Police out for a jog. But then there were scuffles between the Police and concerned citizens who thought running around with fire was a bad idea. So instead of arresting the 'torch bearers' for attempted arson, the police were arresting people who were trying to prevent harm to others. Put that silly torch out you silly idiots! Didn’t your mothers tell you to not play with fire!!?
Medical Astrology - What!!??? Well, the head quack HRH Prince Charles and his new Complementary and Natural Healthcare Council is introducing an idea in the wonderful new world of regulated alternative medicine, that all registered practitioners undergo Continuous Professional Development. That’s right - they want quacks to train to be able to quack better. As part of their rigorous training these quacks now have to learn the complicated and difficult method of Medical Astrology. Every ancient civilisation used astrology for forecasting events, promoting health and in the prevention of disease. The alchemists used astrology and based prescriptions on the patient’s planetary constitution. As good quacks, they need to understand patients in order to treat them. The best quack can predict a disease before it occurs- Why wait for a person to get sick? This simple yet effective system of astrology is based on ancient wisdom using Planetary Cycles and popularised by Robin Murphy. What new quackery is this? Are we still in the 21st century? Are you sure we didn’t encounter some rip in space-time and jump back to 300 BC?
Expelled - the irony continues to burn!! - 'Expelled, No intelligence Allowed' the turdumentary by Ben Stein continues to burn on the irony stove. As if the stupid cdesign proponentists didn’t get a good roasting after having thrown out evolutionary biologist Prof. PZ Myers, in front of Prof. Richard Dawkins no less!!, they continue to break the barriers of stupid. Going where no stupid has gone before. Now they are lying, kicking themselves in the nuts and stealing copyrighted work! Well, nothing new you would say, but this is on a whole new level. Billy Dumbski says that they knew this would happen, so they budgeted for lawsuits! WHAAAAT!?

People, I know you miss me and I know I have been derelict in my duties by not blogging often enough. But throwing stupid at me isn’t going to help. It would just give me an aneurism and cause death by blogging. Please cease and desist immediately. You are putting all of humanity at risk.

A big thank you to Abbie 'ERV' Smith

Fri, 15 Feb 2008 11:06:42 GMT

A couple of posts ago, I said I would write about some of the people on this web thingamajik, who have a profound impact on public education and understanding. These are the doer's, the achiever's, the ones who recognize the challenge and do something about it. Over the next year I will be posting a 'Big Thank you' to the many bloggers whose writings have changed my life for ever and hopefully introduce them to my audience who may not have come across them already.

The first to get my scincere thanks is S. Abigail Smith also known as 'ERV'. ERV is a cool superchick from Oklahoma, US, who studies the molecular and biochemical evolution of HIV and epigenetic control of endogenous retro viruses. What makes her so cool you ask?

She is a scientific goddess.
She has a pet dog called Arnie. She rescued him in Dec'2006.
She is an evillution proponentist and Michael Behe doesnt like her. Neither does Bill Dembski.
She is a super woo fighter.
The Christian and Muslim fundies hate her more than they do me.
She is an Atheist.
Did I mention she is a superchick?

I can go on, but I would have to link to all her blog posts for the last 2 years. She does more for the public understanding of Science, in a single day, than the likes of Behe, Dembski and Horowitz can ever hope to achieve in their lifetimes. I thank her from the bottom of my heart!

Science-Based Medicine » Hype over science: Does acupuncture really improve the chances of success for in vitro fertilization?

Mon, 11 Feb 2008 14:52:39 GMT

Dr. David Gorski, a surgical oncologist and fellow oncologist and co-blogger at Science Based Medicine,(Retd.) Dr. Wallace Sampson have written a brilliant critique(s) of the study that claimed to increase chances of success in women undergoing IVF treatment.

The study, which made the headlines on Sky news on Saturday morning, claims that Acupuncture increases the chances of conceiving by over 65% in women undergoing IVF. The news media, especially Sky with Eamon Holmes, were reporting this as a matter of fact and were not providing any evidence to back the claim nor were they reading the fact that the study was in no way original - but mainly a meta-analysis, which was based on appeal to ancient knowledge. As Dr. Gorski points out that after all, bloodletting and purging with toxic metals were also used for centuries as remedies; that does not mean that they actually did anything therapeutic.

He goes on to dissect the entire study and explaining point by point on how the study doesn't really provide any new information but merely amplifies noise and hype. In Dr. Gorski's own words - "The bottom line, is that no plausible physiologic mechanism has been shown or proposed. As we now know, when clinical studies are done about a hypothesis with a very low prior plausibility, noise predominates, producing a disturbingly high proportion of seemingly “positive” studies."

In his article, Dr. Sampson criticizes the British Medical Journal for publishing sectarian medicine methods more often than other journals. He had hoped that the change in editorship at the BMJ would have bought about a significant change in that policy.

The articles by both doctors are very good read, especially if, like me - you aren't in the medical industry and rely on good journalism (which the Sky miserably failed at) to stay in touch.

Science-Based Medicine » Hype over science: Does acupuncture really improve the chances of success for in vitro fertilization?

VS.

Seven hundred bucks damage, an alligator injured and you got away?

Sun, 10 Feb 2008 11:54:26 GMT

... We didnt injure that crocodile. He was fine when we left.

This is the second weekend, since my little disagreement with a little hill while skiing, which broke my left arm, that I find myself grounded. My flying privileges were suspended pending a revalidation of my Class 1 medical certificate. The official story is that I broke my arm while skiing, saving - the President of some country, three kids and their respective pet animals and an alligator who just happened to find himself on the wrong continent. Its not the true story, but its the official one, the official making the story being officially - ME!.

I have regained use of my left arm to a large extent. There are still some aches and pains in certain axis of motion and I cant seem to lift anything heavy. But overall, I am in good shape and have even lost weight!! I expect that tomorrows appointment with the AME (Aviation Medical Examiner) will see my flying privileges restored in full. However, that is just the first step. I am no longer current on type as its been over 28 days since my last flight. So I will have to hit the sim's again to regain currency.

Next week is going to be very busy! However, the last two weeks, were quite humbling. I realised how fragile my ecosystem was. A little bone injury had me completely disabled. If this had been a permanent injury I would have lost my livelihood. Doing anything with just one hand was twice as difficult!! I thank all my friends who came around and helped live a normal life as they cooked, cleaned and provided much needed companionship in what were the two most horrible weeks of my life (so far). In those two weeks I realised how much I loved flying and how helpless I was without my wings - almost like a pedestrian trying to cross a street in rush hour.

Waking up to woo...

Fri, 08 Feb 2008 13:38:59 GMT

I like to get up in the morning and listen to Sky News, usually with Eamon Holmes (though its Lorna Dunkley who wakes me up ). However, this morning, I was frothing at the mouth with anger, as Eamon reported that according to the British Medical Journal, acupuncture increases the chances of conceiving by over 65% in women undergoing IVF. I am surprised that a reputable news channel like Sky would report that Acupuncture improves the chances of pregnancy in women undergoing IVF treatment as if it were a fact, without citing any references that would qualify as peer reviewed scientific literature.

Acupuncture is an archaic procedure in which needles are inserted through the skin over imaginary channels in accord with rules developed from pre-scientific superstition and numerological beliefs. Obviously, the now-scientific acupuncture must be based on a wealth of articles that demonstrate the actual existence of the motor points and nerve junctures, their relationship to the release of neuro-chemicals and a plethora of well controlled, double-blind clinical studies that prove the value of this approach beyond any suspicion. If so, I seem to have trouble finding them, and I very much doubt they exist. Why did the researchers pick Acupuncture though? Why not some other form of woo? Well, because they have been using it for years in China! Ah right, of course, so it must work!!

[As reported on the BBC news website] Professor Edzard Ernst, from the Peninsula Medical School in Plymouth said he was dubious about the reliability of acupuncture trials from China. He said: "On the face of it, these results sound fantastic. I would, however, be very cautious as much of the observed effect could be due to a placebo response. "IVF may not seem to be "placebo-prone" but it probably is: if women expect it to be helpful they are more relaxed which, in turn, would affect pregnancy rates.".

The research titled “Effects of Acupuncture on rates of pregnancy and live birth among women undergoing in vitro fertilisation: systematic review and meta-analysis ”, published in the British Medical Journal can be found at http://press.psprings.co.uk/bmj/february/ivf.pdf . doi:10.1136/bmj.39471.430451.BE

What have I changed my mind about? : Climate Change

Wed, 09 Jan 2008 11:43:49 GMT

I am a bit late in blogging about the new year, but there is a good reason for that. Everyone around the web is blogging about a great start to a new year with hope, excitement and enthusiasm all around. I on the other hand haven't had that great a start to the new year. The actual transition into the morning of the 1st of January was spectacularly breathtaking!! I was at 40,000 feet watching the sunrise in the eastern hemisphere. However, the brief elation and awe was quickly overwhelmed by humility and shame! For it was in those wee hours of the morning of 1st January 2008, that I finished reading the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report "The Physical Science Basis", which is the most comprehensive and up-to-date scientific assessment of past, present and future climate change.

In November, last year, I blogged about the IPCC/Al Gore Nobel Prize and my view on the climate crisis. I said, "I do not deny, but am skeptical of, the extent of the anthropogenic climate change. This is absolutely not the same as denial.". I couldn't have been more wrong! The evidence for anthropogenic influence on global warming is real and its overwhelming!.

To quote from the IPCC report "It is extremely unlikely (<5%) that the global pattern of warming during the past half century can be explained without external forcing, and very unlikely that it is due to known natural external causes alone.". It goes on to say "It is likely that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the general warming observed in the upper several hundred meters of the ocean during the latter half of the 20th century. Anthropogenic forcing, resulting in thermal expansion from ocean warming and glacier mass loss, has very likely contributed to sea level rise during the latter half of the 20th century."

Admittedly, the report does use words like "likely" etc when describing the causal links for climate change in anthropogenic activities. However this uncertainty should not be confused (mea culpa) for total lack of evidence. Au contraire, there is substantial evidence that shows that anthropogenic activities are the cause of global warming! However, the data is complex and causality is inferred and hard to quantify. But the word "likely" is being used to describe a "scientific likelihood" and not an total uncertainty in understanding.

I am not a qualified climatologist, but I do have a good (professional) understanding of macro climate's as I use various global climate/metrological models in flight planning. Neither am I a scientist, but I can read, I can cogitate and I understand the Scientific Method. I have also had help from many reputed scientists in various different fields who have affirmed, corrected and strengthened my understanding of various aspects of the Scientific method and discipline. (look out for a following post on this)

So what have I changed my mind about? Well lots of things, but the scope of anthropogenic climate ranks high on the list. So does this mean, that I will stop flying? Absolutely not! The answer, if any, still lies in technological and scientific progress. And If I could be afforded any solipsism - I may just be a glorified bus driver, but I feel that I help bring about progress by making the world a little smaller.

At any rate, one of the consolations of science is that being wrong on occasion lets you know you don't know everything and motivates renewed curiosity. But one needs to exercise caution on their convictions of right and wrong in science, for as Prof. Kendric Smith of Stanford Univ. said "In religion one can often be forgiven for one's sins but no one should be forgiven for sins against science."

The War on Science

Fri, 04 Jan 2008 22:32:14 GMT

Scientific and technological advances have had profound effects on human life. In the 19th century, most families could expect to lose one or more children to disease. Today, in the United States and other developed countries, the death of a child from disease is uncommon. Every day we rely on technologies made possible through the application of scientific knowledge and processes. The computers and cell phones which we use, the cars and airplanes in which we travel, the medicines that we take, and many of the foods that we eat were developed in part through insights obtained from scientific research. Science has boosted living standards, has enabled humans to travel into Earth’s orbit and to the Moon, and has given us new ways of thinking about ourselves and the universe.

Evolutionary biology has been and continues to be a cornerstone of modern science. The contributions that an overall understanding of evolution has made to human well-being, including its contributions to preventing and treating human disease, developing new agricultural products, and creating industrial innovations, are phenomenal. More broadly, evolution is a core concept in biology that is based both in the study of past life forms and in the study of the relatedness and diversity of present-day organisms. The rapid advances now being made in the life sciences and in medicine rest on principles derived from an understanding of evolution. That understanding has arisen both through the study of an ever-expanding fossil record and, equally importantly, through the application of modern biological and molecular sciences and technologies to the study of evolution.

Yet, there are many who have declared war on science. And they do so on many fronts. Creationism and Intelligent Design (read Creationism) attempt to take on Biology and Evolution with the help of Religion. Even the laws of physics arent exempt from attack from the religious right. Homeopathy/Acupuncture and other quackeries take on Medicine.

This BBC video covers the rise of (Un)Intelligent Design through the lens of the Dover trial. Features brief appearances by Richard Dawkins and David Attenborough. Includes some interesting pieces not seen before, such as a short interview with the Director of the Vatican Observatory.

Climate change, Al Gore and I

Wed, 21 Nov 2007 14:43:44 GMT

Last month, Al Gore, Michael Oppenheimer, and the IPCC were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts in understanding climate change crisis and pointing the way forward to solving it; and last month I received over 120 email's in response to my blog post Climate Change: The new religion, lampooning me for being a climate change 'naysayer'. Those email's, most of them too rude to reproduce, accuse me of ignorance, sin and hypocrisy. Sin I can live with, but the other two I simply have to refute as nothing can be further from the truth.

a) I never have, and don't, deny climate change. Climate change is very real. Global Warming is unequivocal. Weather stations, ocean measurements, decreases in snow cover, reductions in Arctic sea ice, longer growing seasons, balloon measurements, boreholes and satellites all show results consistent with the surface record of warming.

b) I do not deny, but am skeptical of, the extent of the anthropogenic climate change. This is absolutely not the same as denial.

The scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme, IPCC's purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis for informed policy action, primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature (1). In its most recent assessment, IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earth's climate is being affected by human activities: "Human activities ... are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents ... that absorb or scatter radiant energy. ... [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" [p. 21 in (2)].

I agree. The American Meteorological Society (3), the American Geophysical Union (4), and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling (5).

However, I am skeptical of the extent to which the rise in greenhouse gases due to anthropogenic activities is going to lead to apocalyptic climate change. The skepticism stems from the following:

The drafting of such reports and statements involves many opportunities for comment, criticism, and revision, and it is not likely that they would diverge greatly from the opinions of the societies' members. Nevertheless, they might downplay legitimate dissenting opinions. That hypothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abstracts, published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and listed in the ISI database with the keywords "climate change" (6).

The 928 papers were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change.

Authors evaluating impacts, developing methods, or studying paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is natural. (Admittedly, none of these papers argued that point).

The scientific consensus might, of course, be wrong. If the history of science teaches anything, it is humility, and no one can be faulted for failing to act on what is not known. And as I said in my previous entry - Science is at ease with this. As more data becomes available old, flawed theories are thrown out and new theories take their place.

c) However, the climate eco-activists/terrorists don't offer any explanations nor do they proffer any viable solutions. In their opinion, the world is going to end unless I stop doing whatever I am doing now and go live in a straw hut and eat berries. In fact they are probably responsible for more 'waste' of precious resources than anyone else. Like the waste of time and millions of dollars worth of resources at the airports, the police, delays and inconvenience caused to airline passengers, to industry and so on.

Many details about climate interactions are not well understood, and there are ample grounds for continued research to provide a better basis for understanding climate dynamics. The question of what to do about climate change is also still open. But there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change, just not on the extent of it. Climate scientists have repeatedly tried to make this clear. It is time for the rest of us to listen.

Anyway's, the answers to the problems lie in scientific research and industry. Blind faith and proselytism isn't going to help. Handcuffing yourself to gates will get you ridicule or even arrested. Lying down in front of a train or an aircraft or running around airports is likely to get you killed and even put others in danger. The quest for solutions continues but going to back to our cave dwelling ways is definitely not the answer. Arguments over the Kyoto Protocol are outside the realms of science, although it certainly will not reduce greenhouse gas emissions as far or as fast as the IPCC indicates is necessary. The latest IPCC Working Group 2 report suggest that the impact of man-made climate change will on balance be deleterious, particular to the poorer countries of the tropics, although colder regions may see benefits such as increased crop yields. Investment in energy efficiency, new energy technologies and renewable's are likely to benefit the developing world and having a hippie infestation in the neighborhood doesn't help.

But it's the fear mongering that till now has been the domain of religion and politics that I absolutely object to and will not stand for. And that was the point of my last article.

As Boris Johnson put it "Humanity has largely lost its fear of hellfire, and yet we still hunger for a structure, a point, an eschatology, a moral counterbalance to our growing prosperity. All that is brilliantly supplied by climate change. Like all the best religions, fear of climate change satisfies our need for guilt, and self-disgust, and that eternal human sense that technological progress must be punished by the gods."

(1)	See www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm
(2)	S. van den Hove, M. Le Menestrel, H.-C. de Bettignies, Climate Policy 2 (1), 3 (2003)
(3)	American Meteorological Society, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84, 508 (2003).
(4)	American Geophysical Union, Eos 84 (51), 574 (2003).
(5)	See www.ourplanet.com/aaas/pages/atmos02.html.
(6)	The first year for which the database consistently published abstracts was 1993. Some abstracts were deleted from our analysis because, although the authors had put "climate change" in their key words, the paper was not about climate change.

Urgent Appeal: Help Protect Ayaan Hirsi Ali.

Tue, 20 Nov 2007 14:42:58 GMT

In 2005, TIME magazine included Ms. Hirsi Ali in its list of the World’s 100 Most Influential People. If you want more information about her, please read Christopher Caldwell’s fine profile in the the New York Times Magazine. You can also read the essay that Sam Harris published in the Los Angeles Times, or the one that Christopher Hitchens wrote for Slate.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali is the most prominent advocate of free speech and women's rights in the Muslim world, and for this she pays the price of having to live under perpetual armed guard, even in the West. Unfortunately, on October 1st 2007, the Dutch government officially rescinded its promise to protect her. Now, Ayaan Hirsi Ali's friends, colleagues and admirers must come to her aid.

Sam Harris has created a page on his website that links directly to the Ayaan Hirsi Ali Security Trust. The money raised by this trust will pay Ayaan Hirsi Ali's security expenses. In the event that money remains after these costs have been met, it will be used to encourage and protect other dissidents in the Muslim world.

Talking about Dutch Fly Away

Sun, 18 Nov 2007 18:48:54 GMT

Was a depressing day with aircraft in maintenance, bad weather and missing phones. This is my second weekend grounded and phoneless (I forgot my phone at the aerodrome desk in Le Touquet, 2 weeks ago) and I certainly dont like it. How is it that two extremely well qualified pilots, with over 4800 hours between them, can't find a dishwasher to fly!? No wonder GA is in decline. It's in decline because not all pilots can afford to buy their own aircraft and aviation clubs seem more interested in taking money off poor pilots rather than helping them fly!!

The worst was the flight club in Rotterdam. Not only do the ATC speak in dutch even though JAA mandates use of english once there is an english speaking pilot on frequency, but they issue weird clearances like 'CROSS IN THE MIDDLE RW06' during an standard overhead join. And the club owner tells me that I should treat the club as a social organization rather than a rental agency. Yea, like I go to Hertz to socialise and meet lonely fiat punto drivers and organize smart car drive aways. Then there are clubs like in Rochester that have aircraft but the check out instructor cant be bothered to get out of bed on a Sunday morning. I wish they started treating GA seriously and ran it professionally rather than as a hobby.

With any luck, I have found an aircraft (A Cessna 182) that is regularly available and will be checking it out next week. So the plan continues...

Quote

Dutch Fly Away

Hosted by: Capt. Nikhil
Date and time: 09 December 2007 at 07:00
Location name: Denham
View this event on Windows Live

Richard Dawkins's new preface to The God Delusion paperback

Mon, 03 Sep 2007 21:31:34 GMT

During a recent trip to the Galapagos with the Center for Inquiry, Richard Dawkins gave a reading of his new preface to the paperback edition of The God Delusion along with a Q&A session that followed. The event took place in the ship's bar salon area.

The God Delusion was widely described as a surprise best seller on its launch in 2006. Prof. Dawkins gives us point by point refutations of the critiques of the original book. They are by now familiar to those who have been following along, but it's always wonderful to see Prof. Dawkins speak. A must view for all. esp. for the agnostic fence-sitters.

and the Q&A session...

Climate Change : The new religion?

Fri, 24 Aug 2007 19:54:01 GMT

During direct action protests by eco-activists last week,

Five people blocked the main gate at Sizewell B nuclear power station in Suffolk after locking their arms inside barrels of concrete.
A dozen protesters super-glued their hands to entrance doors at BP's headquarters in central London.
Campaigners dressed as "red herrings" protested at the offices of carbon offset firms Climate Care in Oxford and the Carbon Neutral Company in London.
A group invaded the London offices of Bridgepoint Capital, a private equity firm which is behind the expansion of Leeds-Bradford Airport
In total over 60 people were arrested when the 'peaceful' eco protests got out of hand.
Millions of pounds of tax payers money were spent policing the protests. Thousands of ordinary people's lives were affected.

Their message - "Punish, O Lord, those of us who, through our own fault, are ungreen." (Matthew Parris, Times Online, 2006)

Climate Change and Global Warming have become the core belief in the new eco theocracy. The eco-theists put faith in anthropogenic, apocalyptic climate change. Well, the climate is always changing, so they must be right!

Faith is a belief held without evidence. And faith is what the eco-activists require of me. Any evidence that they attempt to provide is at best anecdotal. They make statements about 'facts', but evidence for the facts is often found lacking. Any skepticism is however akin to sacrilege. The eco-activists like to use the name of science in their arguments but they do not like the methods of science.

The world might (or might not) have warmed by a fraction of a degree. This might (or might not) be all (or in part) due to the activities of mankind. It all depends on the quality of observations and the validity of various hypotheses. Science is at ease with this situation. It proposes various theories, discounts the most improbable and attempts to prove the most probable, but it does not believe. Religion is different.

The eco-activists (also referred to as eco-terrorists) resort to proselytism to promote the idea that the activities of modern man are going to lead to apocalyptic climate change and so modern man should desist immediately. Science doesn't seek converts, it merely empowers. It teaches those that are willing to learn, but it does not impose itself on those who are indifferent.

Guilt, resentment and apocalypse. Prophets have since the dawn of history recognized the power they can unleash by linking these three. Elijah told of earthquake, wind and fire; Jeremiah of disasters unnumbered. Ignatius Loyola, Luther, Calvin, the Wesley's, Moses, Mohammad . . . and countless other seers, ayatollahs and divines, have called upon us to bail out of whatever version of Sodom and Gomorrah it has pleased them to paint, before those cities burn.

The prophets of climate change are their inheritors, clothing new belief in the metaphor of the old, reconnecting it to those ancient drives. The Archbishop of Canterbury has sensed as much. Dr Rowan Williams told politicians this week that they would face “a heavy responsibility before God” if they failed to act to control climate change. He described the lifestyle of those who contribute most to global warming as “profoundly immoral”. Asked how God would judge our age if we fail to act, Dr Williams said: “If you look at the language of the Bible on this, you very often come across situations where people are judged for not responding to warnings.”

Admittedly, Some data is beyond refutation: sea levels are surely rising; carbon dioxide levels are up; and the climate is changing. There are likely to be linkages of some sort. Around these rocks of hard facts, however, swirls a sea of guesswork and speculation. It is here where — as we observe philosophical currents at work that are not so much scientific as driven by guilt's, envies and yearnings — we need to observe particular caution.

Secondly, research will follow funding. It is the familiar refrain of the green movement that “climate-change denial” finds funding from the pockets of carbon-producing or carbon-hungry big business, especially in America. That is a fair point, and a reason for skepticism, but it is sauce for both goose and gander. Eco-alarmism has a ready market of its own amongst politicians, journalists and moralists and they have deep pockets too.

Dangerous Ideas.

Sun, 22 Jul 2007 17:37:27 GMT

Starting with the deceptively simple story of an ant, Dan Dennett unleashes a dazzling sequence of ideas, making a powerful case for the existence of "memes" -- a term coined by Richard Dawkins for mental concepts that are literally alive and capable of spreading from brain to brain.
On the way, look out for:
• a powerful one-sentence secret of happiness
• a compelling insight into terrorists' motivation
• a chilling view of Islam
And just when you think you know where the talk's heading, it dramatically shifts direction and questions some of our fundamental assumptions.

This kind of explains the viral memes in many societies in the west and especially the east. I was bought up in a strong Hindu sub-culture which embraces the idea of a elephant headed god - Ganesha. During the annual festival the normally benign worship turns into euphoria. I let go of the meme a long time ago, as I just cant bear the concept of a god, any god (esp. Elephant headed humanoid god.) in a rational society. However, many of my friends and family, while not particulary religious, do continue on with the traditions and ceremonies involved. The meme survives almost irrespective of daily professions (Doctors, Engineers, Writers, Scientists...), activities or personal beliefs. A cousin admitted that he was an agnostic, but still took part in the ceremonies because it was a part of his culture. It seems that otherwise rational people are often corrupted by an overwhelming desire to preserve their cultures. Is this a viral meme fighting for survival?

What is wrong with culture attrition [sic] anyways? It was part of a Hindu sub-culture to burn widows on their husbands pyre. That didn't survive... so why the desire to preserve other parts of that culture? Casteism, which is not dissimilar to racism, finds legal and government backing in India.

When subjected to individual meme's in a culture or religion, humans form groups to oppose assimilation or attrition. Yet, we are united in following the meme, that we are to preserve these viral agglomeration of memes, sometimes at whatever cost necessary.

The war of the sturgeons.

Thu, 28 Jun 2007 14:13:34 GMT

I am scared of many things. There I have said it. Spiders (esp. 'Daddy Long Legs'), insects, bees, crocodiles, lions (the ones at Woburn Park have it in for me personally), terrorists etc. are high amongst things that terrify the beezeebers out of me. (On that point, what exactly are beezeebers? Are they anywhere near the cockle or the sub-cockle area of one's heart?). But now, if the Telegraph is to be believed, I need to be afraid, very afraid, of fish.

Now, one would say, well, don’t go near one then. But only if it were so simple, cause these aren’t your everyday razor toothed shark from Jaws variety or the Big f**k-off 'Moby-dick' whale variety, but armour plated, indoctrinated, militant, flying fish!. The Florida's Fish and Wildlife Commission (FFWC) have launched a campaign to warn people that a brush with an "armour plated" sturgeon - an endangered species that dates back 225 million years and can grow to 8ft and weigh 200lb - could send them to the surgeon. They've got a kind of armour plating that makes their bodies tough. It's as if you were riding a motorcycle at 35 mph and someone threw a 100lb concrete block in your face."

Endangered?? They are armour plated!! And 8 ft, 200 lbs!! What are they endangered by?? And hang on.. they are the ones attacking us!! Now you will say, but they are in Florida, you are in London, what do you have to fear?

But you see, I am a worrier. (No, it’s not a typo). I worry too much. I worry that 'Smart Car' drivers are out to run me over. I worry that tea/coffee machines are designed to scald the user. You might think that this sort of thing is rather silly, but you won’t be laughing when you have been run over and scalded. And now I have to worry about giant, amour plated fish jumping out of the water and killing me. I realize that they are in Florida and I am in London, but they are obviously determined and indoctrinated. Also the article doesn’t say how far they can fly. (We didn’t think the Jap's could fly to Pearl Harbour either...). You're probably thinking that common sense should tell me I am safe. That’s what the guy in Florida was thinking as well right before a sturgeon broke his spine.

Among last year's victims was Dawn Poirier, 32, a beauty shop owner from Kenneth City, Florida. She was on a boat with her boyfriend when a sturgeon measuring up to 6ft rocketed out of the water, smashing into her face and ripping off the vessel's engine before toppling back and swimming away. It took two weeks for her to recover consciousness, after which she underwent surgery to reconstruct one side of her face. "I was in a coma. I don't remember 15 days of my life," said the mother of two. "My entire life was changed because of a flying fish."

I think the fish must be under some kind of evil dictatorship. The Sturgeon General probably shows them video's of humans eating sturgeon foetuses (caviar) and frying the prisoners or war in batter. It's no coincidence that we don’t even hear about them for thousands of years and now suddenly they start a major military offensive against us. Major Hamlin warns us - "We fear the fish could only just be getting started". See, he is a Major. Surely, Shirley, he knows what he is talking about. I say we call our boys back from Iraq or wherever they are now and set up a protective perimeter around London ASAP! No one’s safe till we know that these fish aren’t building any Inter Continental Ballistic Fish!

Remembering a fallen Angel

Mon, 23 Apr 2007 20:32:20 GMT

It's just 100 and some years since we took the first steps in learning how to fly. Since then many have made the ultimate sacrifice in pursuit of the most beautiful dream that has haunted mankind since Icarus – Flight.

21^st April, 2007, 32 year old Lt. Cmdr. Kevin J. Davis of Pittsfield, Mass. was killed while performing with the Blue Angels in Beaufort, South Carolina. His F/A-18 "Hornet" never joined the Delta formation the other Angels had formed over the crowd and his parents, who were there to watch their son's first ever Blue Angel performance. During his Navy career, he earned "Top Stick" status in his class at Fighter Squadron 101 at Naval Air Station Oceania, Va., while training in F-14 Tomcat jets. He flew missions supporting the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan and graduated from Navy Flight Weapons School in 2004.

The Blue Angels are unique from other jet aviators because they don't wear the traditional G-suits that most jet pilots use to avoid blacking out during manoeuvres that exert strong gravitational forces. The suits inflate around the lower body to keep blood in the brain, but that could cause a pilot to bump the control stick — a potentially deadly move when flying inches from other planes.

"He was fascinated with airplanes from the time he was little," former neighbour Betty Sweeney said. "He knew what he wanted to do, and he did it. That's the only relief, that he went doing what he wanted to do."

At Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort, the site of Saturday's crash, a sombre crowd watched Sunday as six jets flew overhead in formation. Smoke streamed behind one of the jets as it peeled away from the others to complete the "missing man formation," the traditional salute for a lost aviator.

I am asked again and again – "Why fly?" What's so fascinating about flying? Well, it's quite simple really. I'm just not happy unless there is some room between me and the ground. Like Leonardo Da Vinci said "When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, and there you will always long to return."

And the Air! The Air up there is very pure and fine, bracing and delicious! And why shouldn't it be? – It is the same air that the Angles breathe.

Happy Bloggiversary!

Mon, 16 Apr 2007 13:09:01 GMT

It was on this day 2 years ago that I published the first entry on this blog. I know I have a fair amount of readers and I would like to thank you all for your subscription. Those who haven't sent me the £2 a month it takes to keep this blog alive please send in your cheque ASAP.

I would like to hear from you guys! So leave a comment, especially if you haven't done so before. If you can't think of anything to say, here are a few good questions:

Have we met before? In person? Email? Chat? Prison?
How did you learn about my blog?
What do you do?
What do you like most about my blog?
Which kind of posts do you enjoy reading? Anything specific you would like my opinion on?
Were you offended by the content? If yes, would you like some more? If not, tell me the ways...
Anything else?

Chick'n Soup for the gentile soul.

Fri, 13 Apr 2007 15:43:42 GMT

It is easy to be depressed when your planet has been demolished by ignorant aliens, the woman you love is gone due to a misunderstanding about the nature of space-time and the spaceship in which you were travelling has crashed in flames on a remote and God fearing planet, and all you have to fall back on are a few soup-making skills. So, in order to survive, I decided to make some beef chowder. Yes, it was Beef not Chicken. I borrowed the title for effect.

How difficult can it be to make beef chowder? Especially for a person who clearly possesses superior intellect than the ignorant inhabitants of this planet. All you need is some beef, potatoes, onions, corn, water, salt, basil, pepper and cheese. Cook it all together and presto... Beef chowder!

Well, I didn't exactly have any potatoes, or onions, or corn, or basil. I had a beef steak, French Roule cheese, Aha onion gravy powder, frozen peas and mash potato powder and plenty of water, salt and pepper. Without further ado, I set about making some beef chowder for my gentile soul.

I should have paid more attention in chemistry class in school. What a terrible waste of the edible resources of this planet. The mash potato bloated, the cheese split in the water, the onion gravy couldn't really mix and the peas floated about on the top in mockery. It looked as if it had been not so much designed as congealed. The unpleasant lumps and odours which emanated from it at unsightly angles would have spoiled most soups, but in this case that was impossible. More uglier and inedible things have been reportedly made by other chefs, but the witnesses are unreliable. One would go as far as saying that the soup totally lacked integrity or rectitude and one would have to be a masochist on diet to eat it.

There is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable. I fear this has already happened and it was my fault.

π of biblical proportions?

Tue, 03 Apr 2007 14:38:17 GMT

I have little patience for ignorant fools, but what I can't stand are ignorant fools of biblical proportions.

I was having a general discussion about air navigation, a subject I happen to know a lot about considering it's my job, with a to-be pilot, hereby referred to as Mr. Id Iot. I was trying to explain to him a few fundamental principles in Euclidian geometry and how they apply to air navigation. The discussion soon turned into a brawl because Id disagreed with me over the value of π (pi)!

π or 22/7 is defined in Euclidean terms as the ratio of a circles circumference to its diameter. It can also be defined as the ratio of the circles area to the area of a square whose side is the radius of the circle. For those trigonometrically inclined, π is the smallest possible value where cos(x) = 0. But the most important attribute of π is that, even though supercomputers have calculated the ratio to the billionth decimal, it's a constant. That basically means that it doesn't change! And for practical purposes the constant has been agreed to 10 decimal places as 3.14159 26535 for scientific applications but is often lowered to 5 decimal places in aviation.

Mr. Id Iot however insinuated that not only was I a heathen and an infidel but that my scholarly resources were weak. Now, while the former means little to me, the latter I cannot possibly let be. So I slapped him with the back of my glove and almost got arrested for assault with a heavy object (Someone put a brick in my glove!!) . Id's main argument was from the 2^nd book of chronicles, which tells us about the construction of the Temple of Jerusalem by King Solomon.

Chapter 4, verses 2 and 5 tell us "Then he made the Sea [a big tub] of cast bronze, ten cubits from one brim to the other; it was completely round. Its height was five cubits and a line of thirty cubits measured its circumference. It was a handbreadth thick; and its brim was shaped like the brim of a cup..... It contained three thousand baths."

He argued, that surely, a person of my intellect can see that the ratio of 30 cubits for the circumference to 10 cubits for the diameter "from one brim to the other" of the "completely round" circle gives the value of π as being exactly 3.

Well Id, I have some news for you. The bums who measured the thing made a mistake of biblical proportions. They measured the diameter (10 cubits) of the tub from outer rim to outer rim, but the circumference (30 cubits) was measured on the inner rim. In other words, the difference between the biblical notion of pi and the actual value may be accounted for by the width of the tub's walls. This was explained by a Hebrew rabbi and scholar named Nehemiah in 150 A.D.

Nehemiah lived a long time ago, but I feel he is my spiritual kin.

Can it be too cold to snow?

Sat, 10 Feb 2007 17:28:29 GMT

"Can it be too cold to snow?" a colleague at work asked me. After all, it only snows when it's cold, so the colder it is, the snowier it must be. Right? Wrong.

Arctic climates often get surprisingly little snow. Barrow, Alaska, for example, gets less snow than Chicago in an average year, despite having winters that average 39ºF (22ºC) colder. So does that mean it can be too cold to snow? Well, people from cold climates might be forgiven for thinking it can, since they have lived through a lot of cold winters and may have noticed that the coldest weather of any given year has never been associated with snow. That isn't really because it's too cold to snow, but because it's too dry. (The coldest weather is almost always associated with very high pressure and very dry air.) The truth is that it can never be too cold for snow, barring a drop in temperature all the way to absolute zero (-460ºF or -273ºC), in which case snow or lack thereof should be the least of your concerns. However, even at balmier temperatures than absolute zero, below, say, -20ºF (-29ºC), it can be too cold for a lot of snow to fall.

So obviously you need more than just cold weather to make snow. In the primordial order the key ingredient is water vapour. The United Kingdom has plenty of that, thanks to the warm Azores current and the prevailing westerly winds that bring moist air all the way from the warmer climes south of the Equator. The South Pole has none of these factors. It is farther from open water, the water around Antarctica doesn't evaporate as readily because it's so cold, and the prevailing winds tend to carry what moisture there is parallel to the coast, and not toward the interior.

Another thing to consider is that frigid air can "hold" less water vapour than merely chilly air. I put "hold" in quotation marks because the air doesn't really hold or support the water vapour in any real sense. The nitrogen and oxygen coexist with the water vapour in the same volume without interacting with each other very much. It is the temperature of the volume, not the presence of other gases that determines the saturation vapour pressure of water. Saying the air is "saturated" is another way of saying the dew point has been reached, or that the relative humidity is 100%. "Saturation vapour pressure" is also a rather misleading term, but it hasn't yet been overtaken by the arguably more appropriate "equilibrium vapour pressure." For most practical purposes, saturation can be thought of as the greatest amount of water vapour that can exist in a volume at a given temperature without some of it becoming liquid or solid, but see below for important exceptions. The higher the temperature, the higher the saturation vapour pressure. If you could turn all the water vapour in a volume of saturated frigid air into snow, you would get less snow than if you did the same thing to a volume of saturated chilly air. How much less? A lot less. At 32ºF (0ºC), a cubic meter of saturated air (strictly speaking, saturated with respect to ice) contains about 2.7 grams of water vapour. At 0ºF (-18ºC), it contains six-tenths of a gram (only about a fifth as much as at freezing), and at -40º (on either scale), it contains only 0.07 grams (only a fortieth as much as at freezing). This helps explain why the heaviest snowfalls almost always occur when the temperature is not far from freezing, about 24º to 32ºF (-4º to 0ºC).

Any volume of the atmosphere will contain some water vapour, but only under certain conditions can it turn into snow. One necessary condition is that the relative humidity must rise to at least 100%. At this point (the dew point), we would normally expect the water vapour to start to condense (become liquid water) if the dew point is above freezing or deposit (become solid ice) if the dew point is below freezing. However, this doesn't always happen, and the relative humidity can actually exceed 100%, a condition called "super saturation." Water vapour can usually change phase only if there is some object for it to condense or deposit on. At cloud level, there are such objects, tiny particles called nuclei that are part of the atmospheric aerosol. The aerosol is composed of solid or liquid particles (other than water) that are so small that they remain suspended in the atmosphere for a very long time. There are many sources of aerosol particles, such as sea salt, clay particles kicked up by dust storms, volcanic emissions, man-made pollutants, and even the remnants of meteors. For water vapour to condense to form a liquid, one type of nucleus is usually required, called a condensation nucleus (generally water-soluble). For vapour to deposit to form solid ice, a deposition nucleus (generally water-insoluble) is usually required. Not all aerosol particles act as either type of nucleus, and not all nuclei are active at all temperatures. As a rule, the colder the temperature is, the more nuclei become activated. Important nuclei are tiny, typically only about a thousandth of a millimetre across.

Once condensation has occurred, the water droplets can continue in the liquid state even if the temperature falls below the usual freezing point. Such liquid droplets are said to be "super cooled." A third sort of particle is usually required to initiate freezing, called an ice nucleus or freezing nucleus (but some particles can act as both condensation and freezing nuclei). Again, the colder the temperature, the greater the number of substances that can act as nuclei. Testosterone, of all things, has been determined to becomes an active ice nucleus at 28ºF (-2ºC). (I can only hope it wasn't my tax money that paid for this line of research.) Presumably it is only at monster truck rallies and in football locker rooms that the amount of testosterone in the air is of meteorological significance. Maybe not testosterone, but other organic substances like pollen and bacteria can actually be important ice nuclei in nature.

Depending on the availability of active ice nuclei, super cooled water droplets and tiny solid ice crystals (typically less than a tenth of a millimetre) can coexist in the same cloud. It is in clouds like this that large snow crystals are formed. At temperatures below freezing, water vapour has a greater affinity for solid ice than for liquid water, so the vapour tends to evaporate from the water droplets and deposit on the ice crystals. This is known as the Bergeron process after Tor Bergeron, the Norwegian meteorologist who first proposed it. When the growing ice crystals become heavy enough to overcome the updrafts found in the cloud and fall toward the ground, they are called snow crystals. In layman's language "snowflake" is often used to mean the little six-sided symmetrical crystal, but to meteorologists that is properly called a "snow crystal". A snowflake is an aggregate of from two to several hundred snow crystals. At temperatures anywhere near freezing, snow crystals have a strong tendency to stick together (aggregate) if they touch as they fall, so snowfalls near freezing will feature mostly snowflakes. As the temperature falls, aggregation is less likely to occur. At temperatures below about 23ºF (-5ºC), individual snow crystals sometimes fall. Aggregated flakes rarely fall when the temperature is below 0ºF (-18ºC) and never below -33ºF (-36ºC). So you might be justified in saying it can be too cold for snowflakes to fall, but not justified to say it's too cold for snow to fall. Snowfall composed of individual snow crystals is sometimes called "diamond dust" if it sparkles in the sunlight, or "flour snow" if it does not.

At temperatures around -40º (on either scale), water droplets generally freeze even without active ice nuclei by a process called homogeneous nucleation. Without the presence of rapidly evaporating liquid droplets, crystals will grow by deposition very slowly and will have trouble growing to a size large enough to overcome cloud updrafts and fall to the ground. However, some crystals will by chance sublimate, and the vapour produced can be deposited on other crystals until a few of them are big enough to fall. If the updrafts are very weak, then very small crystals, often called snow grains, can fall despite their small size. In Japan, crystals as small as 0.07 mm (not much bigger than fog droplets) have fallen. Surprisingly, in very cold climates, particularly Antarctica, snow does not always fall from visible clouds, but from an apparently clear sky. This may involve a process called self-nucleation, in which vapour molecules come together by chance without benefit of a nucleus. This sort of snowfall is extremely light, but it can continue for days on end. I have seen anecdotal reports of this sort of snow often falling at or below -58ºF (-50ºC) in Antarctica, but I have been unable to find official records to confirm this.

So what is the official world record for the coldest temperature at which snow has fallen? I'll be damned if I can find out. It seems that meteorologists don't bother to keep records like that. They obviously have no sense of priority. I took matters into my own hands and searched twelve years of daily records for Fairbanks, Alaska, a city that has cold yet reasonably snowy winters. The coldest snowy day I could find was February 4, 1999 when just a trace of snow fell at a temperature no higher than -42 F (-41ºC), which was that day's high temperature; the low was -55 F (-48ºC). I'm sure that's not any kind of record, but it's the coldest I could find without ruining my eyes poring over weather data. If a trace isn't good enough, then on January 6, 1998, a whopping 0.4 inches fell at a temperature no higher than -35 F (-37ºC), which was that day's high temperature; the low was -41. Certainly ice crystals can form at much colder temperatures than that. Cirrus clouds are composed of ice crystals as low as -85ºF (-65ºC), but these crystals do not fall to earth. Snow crystals have been created in the laboratory down to at least -112ºF (-80ºC).

So, to sum up, at temperatures near freezing, you can expect big honking snowflakes and lots of them. One those comparatively rare occasions when it snows near 0 F, you can expect individual snow crystals, but not very many of them because such cold air can't "hold" as much water vapour. Below about -40ºC, you can expect only very small crystals to fall, and very few of them at that. So the next time somebody tries to tell you its too cold to snow, check the thermometer. If it's warmer than forty below, point at them, snigger, direct them to my blog, and they'll never doubt you again.

Screw it!

Thu, 25 Jan 2007 15:31:17 GMT

It is quite well known that I know everything. So my neighbour asked me to shed some light on the Phillips screw. Actually he didn't, but I have taken it onto myself to enlighten the teeming million minions. Wokhey! So... Why did Mr. Phillips invent a new type of head for screws? Was he bored? Do Phillips-head screws have any advantage over the standard slot-type screw? Or was Phillips just trying to invent a market he could corner?

First things first... contrary to popular opinion, the Phillips electronic company, for once, have nothing to do with the invention of the Phillips screw. The inventor of the Phillips screw was Henry F. Phillips, a businessman from Portland, Oregon, who obviously had a lot of time on his hands. Henry knew that power screwdrivers don't work well with ordinary slot screws because (1) you waste precious seconds trying to fit the screwdriver into the damn slot; (2) once you succeed, centrifugal force tends to make the bit slide off the screw and into the workbench; and even if you avoid this, (3) when the screw gets as far in as it's going to go, the power screwdriver either stalls, strips out the screw, or starts to spin around in your hand.

To engage the cross-shaped indentation in the head of a Phillips screw you need a Phillips screwdriver (you probably guessed this), whose pointed tip makes it self-centering. This is helpful when you're using a power screwdriver, which is the reason the Phillips screw was invented: it lends itself to assembly-line screwing, so to speak.

So many opportunities for rude puns, but I must be strong. Actually, Phillips screws have many advantages, most of which I am personally acquainted with, having once had a job repairing broken 8085's 8086's in CNC systems. (Uncle Nick has had quite the varied career.) Unfortunately, none of these advantages is of much use to Joe Handyman, who typically regards Phillips screws as a first-class pain in the butt, owing to their propensity to strip out at the least provocation.

A Phillips screwdriver has a pointed tip. Get it anywhere in the general vicinity of the screw and it engages as if by magic, and what's more, stays engaged. Furthermore, the cross-shaped indentation in the screw is so shallow that when you're done the screwdriver pops right out, before you get into trouble. Uncle Nick found this handy fixing many broken PC's and equipment, and back in the 1930s Henry Phillips thought the automakers would find it handy making cars. The automakers were no brighter then than now, but eventually realized the usefulness of Henry's device, and it's been with us ever since.

The only problem is, easy as they are to get in, Phillips screws can be a bitch to get back out. The screwdriver pops out too readily, stripping the screw, gouging the work, and in general transferring to Joe Handyman all the problems that were formerly the province of the assembly line. Once again, in other words, the little guy gets shafted by the dehumanizing forces of capitalism. The only solution, socialism and fascism obviously being in decline, is to buy a power screwdriver of your own. Happy screwing!

Photo Album: Welcome to my Office!

Tue, 13 Dec 2005 13:43:10 GMT

Welcome to my Office!

MyOffice

BA Concorde G-BOAC

Captain Nikhil - BAC One-11

Step In, Sitback relax and enjoy the flight. Trident 2

16-08-05_1454

Photo Album: FlyTeam 2 Silverstone

Mon, 29 Aug 2005 20:28:47 GMT

FlyTeam 2 Silverstone

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Photo Album: FlyTeam 3 - Southend

Fri, 12 Aug 2005 05:24:36 GMT

FlyTeam 3 - Southend

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Photo Album: FlyTeam 1

Tue, 12 Jul 2005 21:55:25 GMT

FlyTeam 1

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